Officially the United Kingdom came out of recession in the last quarter of 2009 with the economy managing to post a positive growth figure for the first time in two years. However the 0.1% growth figure was substantially below the average estimate of 0.4% and even below the lowest individual estimate of 0.2% of specialist economists.

Whilst there can be some comfort in at leas the number is in positive territory, it undoubtedly points to a very precarious picture, as we have previously noted in these columns. It seems unlikely that, despite every effort by the government to try and persuade people to continue spending, the British public wants to remain slave to the very debt machine that got us here. Manufacturing made up a large element of the Q4 GDP growth figure, however this was led largely by exporting activity as the weak pound made UK goods look cheap. With the settling of the currency markets, and the question of interest rate moves imminent we can no longer rely on that either. There are a lot of commentators again raising the question of cheap mortgage deals ending and the possible impact this will have on any resurgence in the property market.

It is hard to take too much cheer from today’s data release, and we think that it will be necessary to keep a very close watch on all other economic data to ensure that we are in fact on the trend back to continuous growth.

Justin Gowen is a bond and derivative broker, having previously been a market maker at CS and HSBC with a total of 13 years as a market professional. He contributes regular articles to the popular business ideas site KnowledgeBrief, and is on the advisory panel for the business guide BusinessBrief.